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PZH ConsultantsFinancial Markets Training & Consultancy
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Products TrainingWe provide comprehensive training in financial markets products covering FX,, Interest rates and Derivatives.
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Skill Sets TrainingWe provide training in financial market skill sets covering strategic planning, execution, risk management and client business facilitation for sales, traders, corporate treasurers, middle and your back office staff.
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ConsultancyWe help to evaluate your organisation’s positioning and advise on your corporate strategy. We will assist to plan and guide the transformation process for your corporate evolution focusing in cultural, behavioral and mindset shifts.
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* Keynote Panel: 4 Grand Investment Themes - Inflation, Risk, Transition & Growth
* Riding Macro Themes with Micro Futures
31 Jul 2021
US Treasury Bond Futures and Market Update
16 Mar 2021 - Thomas Poh
Be careful when flying to the Moon
30 Jan 2021 - Thomas Poh
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Much has been published on the war between retail investors taking on hedge funds who are short stocks like GameStop and AMC. Speculators serve a function of facilitating price discovery, both long and short alike. Though the process, is seldom smooth (if ever), they are still a vital part of the market. Speculators take a position when the perceived rewards outweigh the calculated risks involved. Shorting a stock is inherent risky because of the unlimited loss that could be incurred as compared to a long position which is restricted to the notional value invested in the purchase. The short squeeze sparked by retail traders’ long call positions is simply forcing the shorts to re-assess these risk matrices.
Morality and political affiliations aside, this is the brutal laws of the financial market’s jungle functioning the way they are designed to be. Markets will always tend to squeeze crowded trades regardless of the direction. With 140% of outstanding free float being shorted, GameStop was a crowded short trade waiting to be squeezed. This is not the first time this has happened. Back in 2008 Volkswagen (VW) stock quadrupled and spiked to EUR1000 after Porsche announced an audacious takeover. But the real driver then was that the market quickly realised that the short positions is more than the total free float of the VW stock available in the market.(Shorting auto stocks were used as a proxy to short the market during the Lehman crisis as regulators banned the shorting of financial stocks) It is safe to say that most (if not all) the buyers of GameStop and all the related short squeeze trades are speculative in nature. Therefore, a strong word of caution to all the newly empowered retail traders,... ... |
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Virtual Mock Assessment Centre for ESSEC Business School
18-19 Nov 2020 - Thomas Poh
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Inaugural Virtual Mock Assessment Centre for ESSEC Business School Masters of Finance graduates. Candidates gone through an intense 2-days course conducted virtually where they are required to participate in a role play based on a true life business scenario. A feedback session were then conducted on day 2 where both candidates and assessors share their experiences, learnings and observations.
Click to read more
CME's Education Partner
"Gaining the Edge - Understanding Market Dislocations"
- In partnership with CME Group and Interactive Brokers (4th of May at 4pm - Singapore time)
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In this session, we will discuss the importance for investors to identify signs of market dislocations and why you should adopt a holistic approach towards analyzing this turbulent market. Join in to hear the following topics:
• What is going on in the market? What is market dislocations? • Importance of monitoring market dislocations and implications to your trading plan • Examples of market dislocation – past and present • Measures implemented to close the dislocations • How to leverage these implications into your trading plan |
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Please click on the youtube link below to watch the recording of the full presentation
"Gaining the Edge - Understanding Market Dislocations"
"Gaining the Edge - Understanding Market Dislocations"
Fed’s Road to QE Infinity and Beyond (published on CME Group's website)
17 Apr 2020 - Thomas Poh
The COVID-19 outbreak has hit the world like a hurricane. The ongoing medical and humanitarian crisis has also sparked off an economic and financial one. As the world realised that the virus knows no borders, global financial markets tanked. The longest stock market bull run in history ended in the most dramatic fashion as the S&P 500 lost as much as 34%, at its lowest point, on 23rd March.
As countries go into lockdown and the stock market went through a tsunami-styled selloff, secondary tremors were immediately felt across all other asset classes. These asset markets went through huge (some unprecedented) market dislocations, driven by one major common theme, FUNDING. Leading bond ETFs were trading at deep discounts against their NAVs and the USD index rose by almost 9%. The three-month Libor jumped 16bps on 17th March 2020 while the price of Jun 2020 futures indicated Libor vs SOFR spread to be as high as 57 bps at maturity. At one stage, the market even started to sell treasuries and gold simply to raise cash, ignoring their usual flight to safe-haven assets.
Click on the link below to read the full article
https://www.cmegroup.com/education/articles-and-reports/feds-road-to-qe-infinity-and-beyond.html
As countries go into lockdown and the stock market went through a tsunami-styled selloff, secondary tremors were immediately felt across all other asset classes. These asset markets went through huge (some unprecedented) market dislocations, driven by one major common theme, FUNDING. Leading bond ETFs were trading at deep discounts against their NAVs and the USD index rose by almost 9%. The three-month Libor jumped 16bps on 17th March 2020 while the price of Jun 2020 futures indicated Libor vs SOFR spread to be as high as 57 bps at maturity. At one stage, the market even started to sell treasuries and gold simply to raise cash, ignoring their usual flight to safe-haven assets.
Click on the link below to read the full article
https://www.cmegroup.com/education/articles-and-reports/feds-road-to-qe-infinity-and-beyond.html
Signs of Market Consolidation - 4 Interesting Charts
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24Mar2020 - Thomas Poh |
The funding markets seem to have found a temporary footing as central banks attempted to counter the outbreak with their own shock and awe bazookas. The ECB unveiled an EUR 750bio bond purchase 5 days ago while the Fed announced unlimited quantitative easing yesterday as their latest salvo. The US Congress is also debating an up-sized USD2 trillion stimulus package.
On the medical front, although the confirmed cases reported globally continue to rise together with the death toll, we have good news out of China where there is an announcement in the relaxation of the travel restrictions imposed on Wuhan.
All these sparked a rally in equities led by US equities futures which is currently up 5% in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at the time of this report writing. While it is unlikely that the bear trend in equities will end, given that the economic impact of this outbreak potentially overshadow that of the Global Financial Crisis, there are signs of the market reaching a temporary consolidation phase.
Below are 4 charts that might be interesting.
On the medical front, although the confirmed cases reported globally continue to rise together with the death toll, we have good news out of China where there is an announcement in the relaxation of the travel restrictions imposed on Wuhan.
All these sparked a rally in equities led by US equities futures which is currently up 5% in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at the time of this report writing. While it is unlikely that the bear trend in equities will end, given that the economic impact of this outbreak potentially overshadow that of the Global Financial Crisis, there are signs of the market reaching a temporary consolidation phase.
Below are 4 charts that might be interesting.
1) The US Treasuries (UST) finally reversed their selloff and rallied over the last 2 days (treasuries prices have an inverse relationship with yields). This a sign that the Fed's QE measure is restoring some calm in the market which saw heavy selling of Treasuries to raise cash. As we recall in my previous report, UST temporarily of its traditional flight to quality correlationship with equities during last 2 weeks' violent asset selloff because everyone was just selling everything to raise funding.
2) The stock market has lost ALL of the post-Trump election gains. We are hovering at the point of breakout of the Trump rally which started in 2016 which in turn forms a natural support. More interestly, if we zoom into the chart over the last 2 days... ...
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3) Doji stick technical indicator sighted yesterday. This is a sign of market INDECISION. Although this does not necessary signal a reversal, it does indicator that the market is struggling to make new lows in the recent selling trend.
4) Divergence between S&P and VIX. The equities volatility index VIX also known as the "fear index" is reversing in spite of the continued selloff in equities over the last few days. Usually VIX climbs higher as volatility increases during equities selloffs. The fact that there is a divergence shows signs of market exhaustion for shorts.
Click on the link below to read the full market report 
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Bottom line: The bear trend in equities is still intact but there is risk that the market will go through a consolidation phase soon. Time to lock in some profits for short positions.
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Kicked off a Trading Simulation course as part of NTU Platform Based Learning ,BF 3209 module on Wed. It has been a great honour and opportunity to be able to help shape the next generation of financial markets industry talents!
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Very honoured to be accepted as a Professional Member of the Asia Professional Speakers Singapore (APSS)!
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